Random Finite Sets Based Very Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting Through Cloud Tracking

Abstract

Tracking clouds with a sky camera within a very short horizon below thirty seconds can be a solution to mitigate the effects of sunlight disruptions. A Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter and a Cardinalised Probability Hypothesis Density (CPHD) filter were used on a set of pre-processed sky images. Both filters have been compared with the state-of-the-art methods for performance. It was found that both filters are suitable to perform very-short term irradiance forecasting.