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    Contextual effects and other influences: using multilevel modelling to study the extent and causes of spatial variations in post-war Australian federal voting

    19985_downloaded_stream_503.pdf (350.1Kb)
    Access Status
    Open access
    Authors
    Charnock, David
    Date
    2004
    Type
    Conference Paper
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Charnock, David. 2004. : Contextual effects and other influences: using multilevel modelling to study the extent and causes of spatial variations in post-war Australian federal voting, Conference of the Australasian Political Studies Association (APSA), 2004, 29 September - 1 October 2004. Adelaide, South Australia: Australasian Political Studies Association.
    Source Title
    Refereed Papers from the 2004 APSA Conference
    Source Conference
    Conference of the Australasian Political Studies Association (APSA), 2004
    Additional URLs
    http://www.adelaide.edu.au/apsa/docs_papers/Others/Charnock.pdf
    Faculty
    Division of Humanities
    Faculty of Media, Society and Culture
    Faculty of Media, Society and Culture (MSC)
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/10357
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Although the techniques of multilevel modelling have been applied to survey data for some individual elections in a small number of countries (including Australia), with the objective of investigating some aspects of the extent and causes of spatial variations in voting behaviour, there are currently no published general studies that cover lengthy periods for any country. In this paper I will provide such a detailed discussion for major party voting at Australian elections for the House of Representatives during most of the post-WWII period.I begin by outlining the overall extent of spatial variations at the level of states and electoral divisions and show how these are influenced by institutional factors and contemporary political events. Following this, I will present results of analyses that examine how much of the localised variation at the level of electoral divisions can be straightforwardly explained by social compositional differences that result from the spatially heterogeneous distribution of important individual level characteristics such as occupation and religion. I then outline some results on the extent to which the other main potential sources of spatial variation, contextual effects, have influenced voting behaviour. Finally, I shall give a detailed discussion of how the significance of particular contextual effects has altered over a long period and will relate these variations to political events and social and economic changes.

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