Spatiotemporal Patterns of Population Distribution

Abstract

Population studies worldwide have suggested that urban population densities generally follow an exponential decay pattern as one travels outwards from the central business district (CBD). Dhaka has experienced phenomenal population growth over the past two decades. This chapter uses econometric and GIS techniques to map and model recent population dynamics using census data for three successive census years (1991, 2001 and 2011) aggregated at the lowest level of census geography. Linear and non-linear regression models were tested to examine urban density form. The study found that a negative exponential function was best suited for the study area since it produced the highest coefficient of determination (R 2). Additionally, temporal trends of the population density gradient for the study area revealed gradual flattening. Further, it was found that the y-axis intercept (an indicator of CBD density) did not drop over time as general theories for cities experiencing economic growth would suggest. The visualisation of population change was conducted through standard deviational ellipses and simple spatial analysis. The results revealed that, with the exception of a few census tracts, the magnitude of population change is (are) still high in the area, and that a suburbanisation trend has set in over the period since the penultimate census.