Changes in tropical cyclone activity over Northwest Western Australia in the past 50 years and a view of the future 50 years

Abstract

© 2015. In the first half of this research, this study examines the trend in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the economically important northwest Western Australia (NWA) TC basin (equator–40°S, 80°–140°E) based on statistical analyses of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and large-scale environmental variables, which are known to be closely linked to the formation and longevity of TCs, from NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. In the second half, changes in TC activity from climate model projections for 2000–60 are compared for (i) no scenario change (CNTRL) and (ii) the moderate IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (EGHG). The aims are to (i) determine differences in mean annual TC frequency and intensity trends, (ii) test for differences between genesis and decay positions of CNTRL and EGHG projections using a nonparametric permutation test, and (iii) use kernel density estimation (KDE) for a cluster analysis of CNTRL and EGHG genesis and decay positions and generate their probability distribution functions. The main findings are there is little difference in the mean TC number over the period, but there is a difference in mean intensity; CNTRL and EGHG projections differ in mean genesis and decay positions in both latitude and longitude; and the KDE reveals just one cluster in both CNTRL and EGHG mean genesis and decay positions. The EGHG KDE is possibly disjoint, with a wider longitudinal spread. The results can be explained in terms of physical, meteorological, and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions, which provide natural limits to the spread of the genesis and decay points.