Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision

Abstract

Our motivation is to inform an industrial decision to replace a conventional power station in a context where there are risks and uncertainties associated with new energy technologies such as renewables and smart grids. We develop a modelling approach to support this strategic engineering decision. Our goal is to support managers who need to define solutions for engineering systems within a compressed time scale, when there are multiple stakeholders and inter-related uncertainties. The general modelling process is described and analysis for the industrial case is presented. © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London.