Prediction of Bluetongue virus seropositivity on pastoral properties in northern Australia using remotely sensed bioclimatic variables
MetadataShow full item record
To monitor Bluetongue virus (BTV) activity in northern and eastern Australia the National Arbovirus Monitoring Program (NAMP) collects data from a network of sentinel herds. Groups of young cattle, previously unexposed to infection, are regularly tested to detect evidence of seroconversion. While this approach has been successful in fulfilling international surveillance requirements, it is labour and cost intensive and operationally challenging in the remote area of the northern Australian rangelands. The aim of this study was to assess the suitability of remotely sensed data as a means for predicting the distribution of BTV seroprevalence. For the period 2000–2009, bioclimatic variables were derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data products for the entire Northern Territory. A generalised linear model, based on the seasonal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and minimum land surface temperature, was developed to predict BTV seropositivity.The odds of seropositivity in locations with NDVI estimates >0.45 was 3.90 (95% CI 1.11 to 13.7) times that of locations where NDVI estimates were between 0 and 0.45. Unit increases in minimum night land surface temperature in the previous winter increased the odds of seropositivity by a factor of 1.40 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.91). The area under a Receiver Operator Characteristic curve generated on the basis of the model predictions was 0.8. Uncertainty in the model's predictions was attributed to the spatio-temporal inconsistency in the precision of the available serosurveillance data. The discriminatory ability of models of this type could be improved by ensuring that exact location details and date of NAMP BTV test events are consistently recorded.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Spatio-temporal modelling of bluetongue virus distribution in Northern Australia based on remotely sensed bioclimatic variablesKlingseisen, Bernhard Johann (2010)The presence of Bluetongue virus (BTV) in Northern Australia poses an ongoing threat for animal health and although clinical disease has not been detected in livestock, it limits export of livestock from the infected ...
Developing spatio-temporal prediction models for arbovirus activity in nothern Australia based on remotely sensed bioclimatic variablesKlingseisen, Bernhard; Corner, Robert; Stevenson, Mark (2011)Vector-borne diseases pose an ongoing threat to public and animal health in the north ofAustralia. A number of surveillance programs are in place to determine the extent of virus activityand control the risk, but these ...
Schulte, A.; Pandeya, N.; Fawcett, J.; Fritschi, Lin; Risch, H.; Webb, P.; Whiteman, D.; Neale, R. (2015)Purpose: Gastric colonization with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer, but results of epidemiological studies have been inconclusive. We analyzed data from the ...