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    Probabilistic modelling of rainfall induced landslide hazard assessment

    143575_23416_56769.pdf (1.383Mb)
    Access Status
    Open access
    Authors
    Kawagoe, S.
    Kazama, S.
    Sarukkalige, Priyantha Ranjan
    Date
    2010
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Kawagoe, S. and Kazama, S. and Sarukkalige, P. 2010. Probabilistic modelling of rainfall induced landslide hazard assessment. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 14 (6): pp. 1047-1061.
    Source Title
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
    DOI
    10.5194/hess-14-1047-2010
    ISSN
    1027-5606
    Faculty
    School of Engineering
    Department of Civil Engineering
    Faculty of Science and Engineering
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21494
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    To evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides hazards over Japan, this study uses a probabilistic model based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Study particular concerns several important physical parameters such as hydraulic parameters, geographical parameters and the geological parameters which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrological parameter (hydraulic gradient) is the most influential factor in the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the hydraulic gradient is used as the main hydraulic parameter; dynamic factor which includes the effect of heavy rainfall and their return period. Using the constructed spatial data-sets, a multiple logistic regression model is applied and landslide hazard probability maps are produced showing the spatial-temporal distribution of landslide hazard probability over Japan. To represent the landslide hazard in different temporal scales, extreme precipitation in 5 years, 30 years, and 100 years return periods are used for the evaluation. The results show that the highest landslide hazard probability exists in the mountain ranges on the western side of Japan (Japan Sea side), including the Hida and Kiso, Iide and the Asahi mountainous range, the south side of Chugoku mountainous range, the south side of Kyusu mountainous and the Dewa mountainous range and the Hokuriku region. The developed landslide hazard probability maps in this study will assist authorities, policy makers and decision makers, who are responsible for infrastructural planning and development, as they can identify landslide-susceptible areas and thus decrease landslide damage through proper preparation.

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