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    Climate change and dengue: A critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

    225309_150916_1471-2334-14-167.pdf (339.2Kb)
    Access Status
    Open access
    Authors
    Naish, S.
    Dale, P.
    Mackenzie, John
    McBride, J.
    Mengersen, K.
    Tong, S.
    Date
    2014
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Naish, S. and Dale, P. and Mackenzie, J. and McBride, J. and Mengersen, K. and Tong, S. 2014. Climate change and dengue: A critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches. BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1).
    Source Title
    BMC Infectious Diseases
    DOI
    10.1186/1471-2334-14-167
    ISSN
    1471-2334
    Faculty
    Faculty of Health Sciences
    Remarks

    This article is published under the Open Access publishing model and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ Please refer to the licence to obtain terms for any further reuse or distribution of this work.

    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/22936
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Background: Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods: A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions: It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change.

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