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    Predicting the effectiveness of prevention: A role for epidemiological modeling

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Walls, H.
    Peeters, A.
    Reid, Christopher
    Liew, D.
    McNeil, J.
    Date
    2008
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Walls, H. and Peeters, A. and Reid, C. and Liew, D. and McNeil, J. 2008. Predicting the effectiveness of prevention: A role for epidemiological modeling. Journal of Primary Prevention. 29 (4): pp. 295-305.
    Source Title
    Journal of Primary Prevention
    DOI
    10.1007/s10935-008-0143-y
    ISSN
    0278-095X
    School
    Department of Health Policy and Management
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/24011
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    It is well known that the current combination of aging populations and advances in health technology is resulting in burgeoning health costs in developed countries. Prevention is a potentially important way of containing health costs. In an environment of intense cost pressures, coupled with developments in disease prevention and health promotion, it is increasingly important for decision-makers to have a systematic, coordinated approach to the targeting and prioritization of preventive strategies. However, such a systematic approach is made difficult by the fact that preventive strategies need to be compared over the long term, in a variety of populations, and in real life settings not found in most trials. Information from epidemiological models can provide the required evidence base. In this review, we outline the role of epidemiological modeling in this context and detail its application using examples. Editors' Strategic Implications: Policymakers and researchers will benefit from this description of the utility of epidemiological modeling as a means of generating translational evidence that helps to prioritize data-based prevention approaches and bridge the gap between clinical research and public health practice. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

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