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    Modeling tunnel construction risk dynamics: Addressing the production versus protection problem

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Wang, F.
    Ding, L.
    Love, Peter
    Edwards, D.
    Date
    2016
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Wang, F. and Ding, L. and Love, P. and Edwards, D. 2016. Modeling tunnel construction risk dynamics: Addressing the production versus protection problem. Safety Science. 87: pp. 101-115.
    Source Title
    Safety Science
    DOI
    10.1016/j.ssci.2016.01.014
    ISSN
    0925-7535
    School
    Department of Civil Engineering
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/24481
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Accidents remain a pervasive problem in tunnel construction. A major contributor to these accidents is a construction contractor's inability to determine an appropriate trade-off between production and protection goals. Thus, to examine this issue, a systemic model, which integrates System Dynamics (SD), Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) and smooth Relevance Vector Machines (sRVM) (referred to as 'Organizational Risk Dynamics Observer' (ORDO)), is developed to investigate the mechanism of risk migration that resulted from the interactions between a contractor's organizational and technical systems. The model is demonstrated on an urban metro tunnel project that was constructed in Wuhan, China. It is revealed that when attention focused upon production, the propensity for minor accidents to occur increased, which triggered management to focus on protection. This increasing emphasis on protection may have muted the safe systems of working as incidents may be unreported, which can inhibit the motivation for safety awareness. When coupled with an increase in production pressure, the tunneling project could become prone to experiencing a major accident. Based on the results, it is suggested that the whole organization must continue to foster a sound safety culture by resisting production pressure at the expense of compromising safety.

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