The maturing concept of estimating project cost contingency: A review
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Baccarini, David. 2006. The maturing concept of estimating project cost contingency: A review, in Runeson, G. and Best, R. (ed), Proceedings of the Australasian University Building Educators Association Annual Conference 2006: 31st Annual Conference, Jul 11-14 2006. Sydney, NSW: University of Technology.
AUBEA conference 2006
Faculty of Built Environment, Art and Design
Contingency is a ubiquitous component of project cost estimating. This paper provides a review of the literature pertaining to the estimating of project cost contingency. It describes the flaws of the tradition percentage method for estimating project cost contingency and sets out more robust estimation methods - regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulation and artificial neutral networks. In particular, the application of regression analysis for predicting project cost contingency is reviewed in detail as a prelude to the author’s research into the development and testing of a regression model for forecasting project cost contingency for engineering construction projects.
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Baccarini, David; Love, Peter (2014)Cost contingency is one component of a project’s budget to cater for cost growth. The determination of a project’s cost contingency is a pervasive problem because the amount that is incorporated into an estimate is ...
Baccarini, David (2004)The cost performance of building construction projects is a key success criterion for project sponsors. Project cost performance is typically measured by comparing final cost against budget. A key component of the project ...
Baccarini, David (2005)Patrascu (1988) observed nearly two decades ago that "contingency is probably the most misunderstood, misinterpreted, and misapplied word in project execution." Since that time there has been little empirical research ...