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    The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change

    226496_154997_140055.pdf (6.842Mb)
    Access Status
    Open access
    Authors
    Keppel, Gunnar
    Monkany, K.
    Wardell-Johnson, Grant
    Phillips, B.
    Welbergen, J.
    Reside, A.
    Date
    2015
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Keppel, G. and Monkany, K. and Wardell-Johnson, G. and Phillips, B. and Welbergen, J. and Reside, A. 2015. The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 13 (2): pp. 106-112.
    Source Title
    Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
    DOI
    10.1890/140055
    ISSN
    15409295
    Remarks

    Copyright © 2015 The Ecological Society of America

    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/29924
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Refugia – areas that may facilitate the persistence of species during large-scale, long-term climatic change – are increasingly important for conservation planning. There are many methods for identifying refugia, but the ability to quantify their potential for facilitating species persistence (ie their “capacity”) remains elusive. We propose a flexible framework for prioritizing future refugia, based on their capacity. This framework can be applied through various modeling approaches and consists of three steps: (1) definition of scope, scale, and resolution; (2) identification and quantification; and (3) prioritization for conservation. Capacity is quantified by multiple indicators, including environmental stability, microclimatic heterogeneity, size, and accessibility of the refugium. Using an integrated, semi-mechanistic modeling technique, we illustrate how this approach can be implemented to identify refugia for the plant diversity of Tasmania, Australia. The highest- capacity climate-change refugia were found primarily in cool, wet, and topographically complex environments, several of which we identify as high priorities for biodiversity conservation and management.

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