Curtin University Homepage
  • Library
  • Help
    • Admin

    espace - Curtin’s institutional repository

    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
    View Item 
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item

    Forecasting Private-Sector Construction Works: VAR Model Using Economic Indicators

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Sing, M.
    Edwards, D.
    Liu, H.
    Love, Peter
    Date
    2015
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Sing, M. and Edwards, D. and Liu, H. and Love, P. 2015. Forecasting Private-Sector Construction Works: VAR Model Using Economic Indicators. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 141 (11): pp. 04015037-1-04015037-9.
    Source Title
    Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    DOI
    10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001016
    ISSN
    0733-9364
    School
    Department of Civil Engineering
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/3087
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Accurately modeling and forecasting construction works completed by main contractors is pivotal for policymakers, who require reliable market intelligence to adjust or develop optimal labor and housing policies. Yet, despite its importance, limited research has been conducted to systematically develop approaches to investigating future trends of works completed in the private construction sector. Against this backdrop, this paper provides a study of the annual financial value of construction work in the private residential market. A vector auto-regression (VAR) model developed utilizes economic indicators (used by private financiers when making investment decisions) to estimate the value of annual construction work carried out by main contractors. Using data from the Hong Kong private residential market and constructing an accumulated impulse function, the developed model suggests that construction work completions in private residential markets can be explained by changes in economic indicators such as gross domestic product and the property price index. These economic indicators have been identified as having a large and direct effect on forthcoming construction works. The developed model also provides a high degree of accuracy (producing an adjusted R2 value of 0.72) when simulating or forecasting future changes in the value of construction works over a short-term 5-year forecast. The output of this study contributes to the literature by systematically developing a reliable approach using economic indicators that is useful for forecasting private-sector construction completions. Such knowledge is of paramount importance when estimating the industry’s future workload and supply of residential buildings.

    Related items

    Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

    • An analysis of Australian mutual fund performance and market relationships
      Pojanavatee, Sasipa (2013)
      Mutual funds are emerging as an opportunity for investors to automatically diversify their investments in such a way that all their money is pooled and the investment decisions are left to a professional manager. There ...
    • The dynamics of Guanxi in the business context under China's economic transition
      Nie, Katherine Su (2007)
      Numerous popular business publications and academic literature have highlighted that the Chinese cultural phenomenon of guanxi has made noticeable impacts on the economic efficiency in China’s economic transition. Despite ...
    • Private equity takeovers in Australia : three essays on motivation, managerial share ownership and governance effects
      Rashid, Mamunur (2012)
      Private equity transactions have grown considerably during the last few years. With an increase in the growth and size of this market, it has become increasingly important to understand the economic forces behind these ...
    Advanced search

    Browse

    Communities & CollectionsIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument TypeThis CollectionIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument Type

    My Account

    Admin

    Statistics

    Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

    Follow Curtin

    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 

    CRICOS Provider Code: 00301JABN: 99 143 842 569TEQSA: PRV12158

    Copyright | Disclaimer | Privacy statement | Accessibility

    Curtin would like to pay respect to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander members of our community by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which the Perth campus is located, the Whadjuk people of the Nyungar Nation; and on our Kalgoorlie campus, the Wongutha people of the North-Eastern Goldfields.