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    Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Sadique, Shibley
    In, F.
    Veeraraghavan, M.
    Wachtel, P.
    Date
    2013
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Sadique, Shibley and In, Francis and Veeraraghavan, Madhu and Wachtel, Paul. 2013. Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book. Journal of Macroeconomics. 37 (3): pp. 81-92.
    Source Title
    Journal of Macroeconomics
    DOI
    10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.01.004
    ISSN
    01640704
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/33060
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume.

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