Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book
MetadataShow full item record
This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Seal, Graham (2011)About This Book‘A wide-ranging account of the compelling power of the outlaw along the borders of history and mythology.’ —Professor Stephen Knight, University of Cardiff‘This is a ground-breaking and masterly work. Outlaw ...
Dang, Giang; Low, S. (2014)This book aims to provide knowledge on how infrastructure is planned and built in a typical developing country, and what key variables are there in the system limiting the efficient use of public investments in infrastructure. ...
Weston, Del (2014)Humanity is facing an unprecedented global catastrophe as a result of global warming. This book examines the reasons why international agencies, together with national governments, are seemingly unable to provide real and ...