The Shale revolution: Global gas and oil markets under transformation

Abstract

The shale gas and oil revolution has unexpectedly and forcefully begun to change the energy landscape in the USA. It is expected to spread beyond the USA, with far reaching implications for the global energy map, but also for the macro economy and politics of many countries. The purpose of this paper is to bring a better understanding to what prompted the revolution, to assess the production methods and associated environmental concerns, to speculate what can reasonably be expected in coming decades, and to sketch the full impact of a ripening shale revolution on the emerging economic and political policy choices for energy exporting and importing countries. We find that a large scale expansion can be expected in US shale gas and oil activities in the coming two decades. Globally, the shale leaders are likely to be countries that are already significant gas and oil producers. Setting up a policy framework to allow and promote shale development in a safe manner is a necessity for the launch of shale exploitation. The most important implication of a successful shale revolution would arguably be a downward pressure on gas and coal prices in regional markets and on the global oil price.