Curtin University Homepage
  • Library
  • Help
    • Admin

    espace - Curtin’s institutional repository

    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
    View Item 
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item

    Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability

    Access Status
    Open access via publisher
    Authors
    Segele, Z.
    Leslie, Lance
    Lamb, P.
    Date
    2009
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Segele, Z. and Leslie, L. and Lamb, P. 2009. Evaluation and adaptation of a regional climate model for the Horn of Africa: rainfall climatology and interannual variability. International Journal of Climatology. 29 (1): pp. 47-65.
    Source Title
    International Journal of Climatology
    DOI
    10.1002/joc.1681
    ISSN
    0899-8418
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/34026
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    This study evaluates the ability of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) version 3 Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to reproduce the observed rainfall amounts and distribution over the topographically varied region of the Horn of Africa. Simulations are performed for the widespread very dry 1984 and locally very wet 1996 years using all of the alternative convective schemes available in the ICTP RegCM3. Extensive comparisons of simulations for 1984 and 1996 reveal that the Emanuel scheme best captures the rainfall patterns and interannual variations for the two extreme years over the Horn of Africa. This scheme therefore is selected for specific adaptation for the region, despite its excessive rainfall estimation there and its demonstrated deficiencies over other regions of Africa not of interest in this study. To reduce rainfall overestimation by the Emanuel scheme, several sensitivity experiments are performed by varying the key parameters that control the rate of convective mass flux, the fraction of condensed water converted to precipitation, and the heating and moistening characteristics of the environment.Results show that the amount of condensed water that ultimately falls out as rain crucially affects simulated rainfall amounts. With an appropriate adjustment to this key parameter, the excessive rainfall amount produced by the Emanuel scheme is reduced substantially. Furthermore, evaluation of RegCM3 simulations for 1982–1999 shows that the modified Emanuel convective scheme not only reproduces the 18-year average rainfall realistically but also captures the interannual variability adequately over the Horn of Africa. The correlation between the modified Emanuel-simulated and Ethiopian station rainfall is quite strong (+0.66). This customized ICTP RegCM3 model now can be used with confidence for the Horn of Africa to study regional rainfall processes and variability and to dynamically downscale seasonal rainfall forecasts.

    Related items

    Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

    • Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall
      Segele, Z.; Lamb, P.; Leslie, Lance (2009)
      This study uses correlation, regression, and composite analyses for the period 1970–1999 to explore the relationships between the June–September rainfall in the Horn of Africa (especially Ethiopian) and large-scale regional ...
    • Assessing the risk of root rots in common beans in East Africa using simulated, estimated and observed daily rainfall data
      Farrow, A.; Musoni, D.; Cook, Simon; Buruchara, R. (2011)
      This paper seeks to establish the concept that the analysis of high temporal resolution meteorological data adds value to the investigation of the effect of climatic variability on the prevalence and severity of agricultural ...
    • Assessment of the performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Eastern Africa Rainfall
      Endris, H.; Omondi, P.; Jain, S.; Lennard, C.; Hewitson, B.; Chang’a, L.; Awange, Joseph; Dosio, A.; Ketiem, P.; Nikulin, G.; Panitz, H.; Büchner, M.; Stordal, F.; Tazalika, L. (2013)
      This study evaluates the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating the characteristics of rainfall patterns over eastern Africa. The ...
    Advanced search

    Browse

    Communities & CollectionsIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument TypeThis CollectionIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument Type

    My Account

    Admin

    Statistics

    Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

    Follow Curtin

    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 

    CRICOS Provider Code: 00301JABN: 99 143 842 569TEQSA: PRV12158

    Copyright | Disclaimer | Privacy statement | Accessibility

    Curtin would like to pay respect to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander members of our community by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which the Perth campus is located, the Whadjuk people of the Nyungar Nation; and on our Kalgoorlie campus, the Wongutha people of the North-Eastern Goldfields.