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    Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run

    Access Status
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    Authors
    Greasley, D.
    Hanley, N.
    Kunnas, J.
    McLaughlin, E.
    Oxley, Leslie
    Warde, P.
    Date
    2014
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Greasley, D. and Hanley, N. and Kunnas, J. and McLaughlin, E. and Oxley, L. and Warde, P. 2014. Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 67 (2): pp. 171-188.
    Source Title
    Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
    DOI
    10.1016/j.jeem.2013.12.001
    ISSN
    0095-0696
    School
    School of Economics and Finance
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/36664
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Genuine Savings (GS) have been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country's sustainability. According to some theorists (e.g. Arrow et al., 2012), under certain conditions a country with a positive level of GS should experience non-declining future utility, given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital (sometimes called "weak" sustainability). This paper reports the first very long-run tests of GS (also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings) as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being. We assemble data for British capital back to 1765, and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well-being: consumption per capita and real wages. An allowance for a "value of time" due to exogenous technological progress is included in some GS measures, and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long-run. On the whole, our results do not reject the postulated relationship between GS and future well-being, and show GS can be a forward looking indicator of future well-being for periods of up to 100 years. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

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