The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
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Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry-level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia
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Smales, Lee (2014)This paper seeks to investigate the influence of political uncertainty, surrounding the Australian federal election cycle, on financial market uncertainty. Measures of political uncertainty are constructed and their ...
Smales, Lee (2017)© 2016 International Review of Finance Ltd.This letter explores a single research question: How does political uncertainty, outside of the election cycle, influence financial market uncertainty? Using the UK (Brexit) ...
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