Exploration value drivers and methodologies

Abstract

The valuation of early-stage exploration projects requires a valuer to take into account a large number of uncertain value drivers, the interplay among which may be non-linear. This paper examines some of the key value drivers including geology, target rnetrics, project area and maturity, the market and the psychology behind the decision-making process. The commonly accepted valuation methods and their underlying logic are outlined, including a view on why they evolved, what value drivers they attempt to address and their potential shortcomings. These methods include the multiple of exploration expenditure, geoscience rating, expected values and market based methods. The potential future valuation methods of replacement values and neural networks are also introduced along with how to minimise heuristic bias and error within the market-based approach.