De-risking Fleet Replacement Decisions

Abstract

This paper outlines the different modelling approaches for realizing sustainable operations of assetreplacement. We study the fleet portfolio management problem that could be faced by a firm deciding ahead which vehicles to choose for its fleet. In particular it suggests a model that enables generating a plan of vehicle replacement actions with cost minimization and risk exposure simulation. It proposes to use conditional value at risk (CVaR) to account for uncertainty in the decision process, and to use clusters modelling to align the generated plan with vehicle utilization.