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    Valuation accuracy and variation: a meta analysis

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Armitage, L.
    Irons, Janine
    Skitmore, M.
    Date
    2007
    Type
    Conference Paper
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Skitmore, R.M. and Irons, J.J. and Armitage, L.A. 2007. Valuation accuracy and variation: a meta analysis, in 13th Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference, Feb 15 2007. Fremantle, WA: PRRES.
    Source Title
    Proceedings to the 13th annual Pacific Rim real estate society conference
    Source Conference
    13th Annual Pacific Rim Real Estate Society Conference
    School
    School of Economics and Finance
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/42189
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    This paper provides a first order approximation of the accuracy of commercial property valuations for comparison with the ±5-10% threshold of tradition, convention and judicial acceptance. The nature of ranges is considered in relation to the uniform and normal probability density functions and the effects of bias considered. Summary statistics are examined for gross differences (differences between property valuations and subsequently realised transaction prices) recorded in the Investment Property Databank (IPD) database and significant yearly changes noted in both the means and standard deviations. A meta analysis of previous work is presented which shows all other results involving gross differences (GDs) to be reasonably consistent with statistics yielded by the IPD database. The results for the two main studies of net differences (GDs adjusted for the lag in time between valuation and transaction dates) also suggest yearly trends of a similar nature to the GDs. The role of intravaluer variability is also examined. The variability associated with the time lag is then estimated and applied to the IPD figures to give the approximation sought, suggesting ±5-30% to be a realistic range in place of ±5-10%.

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