Modeling primary energy substitution in the Asia Pacific

Abstract

A Global Energy Market model (GEM) is used to analyze the market shares (i.e. the primary energy mix) of gases, liquids and solids in the Asia Pacific. The model is successful in matching the historical energy mix from 1850 to 2009. The model also provides a good match of the hydrogen to carbon ratio, which is a proxy for environmental quality. Given these validations, the GEM is then used to present scenarios of the Asia Pacific energy mix and hydrogen to carbon ratio until the year 2030. Three energy mix scenarios are presented - reference case; alternative case 1; alternative case 2. The reference case assumes limited divergence from current policies and technologies. It indicates that Asia Pacific energy needs will be met by approximately 46% solids, 34% liquids, and 20% gases by 2030. Alternative cases 1 and 2 represent policies and technologies that either encourage or discourage the use of gases. The good matches observed for historical data suggest the GEM can be used cautiously for evaluating outcomes and opportunities in the region. Although the model can be used for projecting far into the future, it is currently calibrated to what we consider a reasonable time horizon – until the year 2030. Given appropriate energy policies and sufficient technological advancement, the importance of natural gas in the region could increase significantly.