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    A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot

    246012.pdf (1.151Mb)
    Access Status
    Open access
    Authors
    Keppel, G.
    Robinson, Todd
    Wardell-Johnson, Grant
    Yates, C.
    Van Niel, K.
    Byrne, M.
    Schut, A.
    Date
    2016
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Keppel, G. and Robinson, T. and Wardell-Johnson, G. and Yates, C. and Van Niel, K. and Byrne, M. and Schut, A. 2016. A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot. Annals of Botany. 119 (2): 289-300.
    Source Title
    Annals of Botany
    DOI
    10.1093/aob/mcw182
    School
    Department of Spatial Sciences
    Remarks

    This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Annal of Botany following peer review. The version of record Keppel, G. and Robinson, T. and Wardell-Johnson, G. and Yates, C. and Van Niel, K. and Byrne, M. and Schut, A. 2016. A low-altitude mountain range as an important refugium for two narrow endemics in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot. Annals of Botany. 119 (2): 289-300, is available online at: http://aob.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2016/09/12/aob.mcw182

    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/48354
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Background and Aims: Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change. Methods: We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs). Key Results: Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively. Conclusions: The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors.

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