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    Disruptive innovation, stranded assets and forecasting: the rise and rise of renewable energy

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    Authors
    Green, Jemma
    Newman, Peter
    Date
    2017
    Type
    Journal Article
    
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    Citation
    Green, J. and Newman, P. 2017. Disruptive innovation, stranded assets and forecasting: the rise and rise of renewable energy. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment. 7 (2): pp. 169-187.
    Source Title
    Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment
    DOI
    10.1080/20430795.2016.1265410
    ISSN
    2043-0795
    School
    Sustainability Policy Institute
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/54012
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Disruptive innovations are seen to have three core features: 1. They occupy a niche that expands into being a major disruption to a technological system; 2. They grow exponentially and are thus very surprising in their disruption and 3. They create stranded assets. This paper shows how renewable energy with battery storage has the three core features of a disruptive innovation, and predicts that the number of fossil fuel stranded assets are thus likely to increase with the rise of renewable energy generation. Forecasts for the share of renewable capacity in global energy demand will go beyond current estimates, due to the introduction of battery storage and decline in retail renewable electricity prices, and could account for 100% of global energy demand in a number of different scenarios by 2050. We find that renewables and storage can be characterised as disruptive innovations and have the potential to change energy systems dramatically between now and 2050.

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