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    Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Silva, R.
    West, J.
    Lamarque, J.
    Shindell, D.
    Collins, Bill
    Faluvegi, G.
    Folberth, G.
    Horowitz, L.
    Nagashima, T.
    Naik, V.
    Rumbold, S.
    Sudo, K.
    Takemura, T.
    Bergmann, D.
    Cameron-Smith, P.
    Doherty, R.
    Josse, B.
    MacKenzie, I.
    Stevenson, D.
    Zeng, G.
    Date
    2017
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Silva, R. and West, J. and Lamarque, J. and Shindell, D. and Collins, B. and Faluvegi, G. and Folberth, G. et al. 2017. Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change. Nature Climate Change. 7 (9): pp. 647-651.
    Source Title
    Nature Climate Change
    DOI
    10.1038/nclimate3354
    ISSN
    1758-678X
    School
    School of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS)
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/60384
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref.), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM 2.5 , we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM 2.5 -related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

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