Curtin University Homepage
  • Library
  • Help
    • Admin

    espace - Curtin’s institutional repository

    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
    View Item 
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item

    Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Dieleman, J.
    Sadat, N.
    Chang, A.
    Fullman, N.
    Abbafati, C.
    Acharya, P.
    Adou, A.
    Ahmad Kiadaliri, A.
    Alam, K.
    Alizadeh-Navaei, R.
    Alkerwi, A.
    Ammar, W.
    Antonio, C.
    Aremu, O.
    Asgedom, S.
    Atey, T.
    Avila-Burgos, L.
    Ayer, R.
    Badali, H.
    Banach, M.
    Banstola, A.
    Barac, A.
    Belachew, A.
    Birungi, C.
    Bragazzi, N.
    Breitborde, N.
    Cahuana-Hurtado, L.
    Car, J.
    Catalá-López, F.
    Chapin, A.
    Chen, C.
    Dandona, L.
    Dandona, R.
    Daryani, A.
    Dharmaratne, S.
    Dubey, M.
    Edessa, D.
    Eldrenkamp, E.
    Eshrati, B.
    Faro, A.
    Feigl, A.
    Fenny, A.
    Fischer, F.
    Foigt, N.
    Foreman, K.
    Ghimire, M.
    Goli, S.
    Hailu, A.
    Hamidi, S.
    Harb, H.
    Hay, S.
    Hendrie, Delia
    Ikilezi, G.
    Javanbakht, M.
    John, D.
    Jonas, J.
    Kaldjian, A.
    Kasaeian, A.
    Kasahun, Y.
    Khalil, I.
    Khang, Y.
    Khubchandani, J.
    Kim, Y.
    Kinge, J.
    Kosen, S.
    Krohn, K.
    Kumar, G.
    Lafranconi, A.
    Lam, H.
    Listl, S.
    Magdy Abd El Razek, H.
    Magdy Abd El Razek, M.
    Majeed, A.
    Malekzadeh, R.
    Malta, D.
    Martinez, G.
    Mensah, G.
    Meretoja, A.
    Micah, A.
    Miller, Ted
    Mirrakhimov, E.
    Mlashu, F.
    Mohammed, E.
    Mohammed, S.
    Moses, M.
    Mousavi, S.
    Naghavi, M.
    Nangia, V.
    Ngalesoni, F.
    Nguyen, C.
    Nguyen, T.
    Niriayo, Y.
    Noroozi, M.
    Owolabi, M.
    Patel, T.
    Pereira, D.
    Polinder, S.
    Qorbani, M.
    Rafay, A.
    Rafiei, A.
    Date
    2018
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Dieleman, J. and Sadat, N. and Chang, A. and Fullman, N. and Abbafati, C. and Acharya, P. and Adou, A. et al. 2018. Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016–40. The Lancet. 391 (10132): pp. 1783-1798.
    Source Title
    The Lancet
    DOI
    10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30697-4
    ISSN
    0140-6736
    School
    School of Public Health
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/68997
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. Findings: In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 10 trillion to 10 trillion) in 2015 to $20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4–5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6–4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7–2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24–65) to $413 (263–668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90–200) to $1699 (711–3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3–38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4–98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. Interpretation: We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Related items

    Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

    • Spending on health and HIV/AIDS: domestic health spending and development assistance in 188 countries, 1995–2015
      Dieleman, J.; Haakenstad, A.; Micah, A.; Moses, M.; Abbafati, C.; Acharya, P.; Adhikari, T.; Adou, A.; Ahmad Kiadaliri, A.; Alam, K.; Alizadeh-Navaei, R.; Alkerwi, A.; Ammar, W.; Antonio, C.; Aremu, O.; Asgedom, S.; Atey, T.; Avila-Burgos, L.; Awasthi, A.; Ayer, R.; Badali, H.; Banach, M.; Banstola, A.; Barac, A.; Belachew, A.; Birungi, C.; Bragazzi, N.; Breitborde, N.; Cahuana-Hurtado, L.; Car, J.; Catalá-López, F.; Chapin, A.; Dandona, L.; Dandona, R.; Daryani, A.; Dharmaratne, S.; Dubey, M.; Edessa, D.; Eldrenkamp, E.; Eshrati, B.; Faro, A.; Feigl, A.; Fenny, A.; Fischer, F.; Foigt, N.; Foreman, K.; Fullman, N.; Ghimire, M.; Goli, S.; Hailu, A.; Hamidi, S.; Harb, H.; Hay, S.; Hendrie, Delia; Ikilezi, G.; Javanbakht, M.; John, D.; Jonas, J.; Kaldjian, A.; Kasaeian, A.; Kates, J.; Khalil, I.; Khang, Y.; Khubchandani, J.; Kim, Y.; Kinge, J.; Kosen, S.; Krohn, K.; Kumar, G.; Lam, H.; Listl, S.; Magdy Abd El Razek, H.; Magdy Abd El Razek, M.; Majeed, A.; Malekzadeh, R.; Malta, D.; Mensah, G.; Meretoja, A.; Miller, Ted; Mirrakhimov, E.; Mlashu, F.; Mohammed, E.; Mohammed, S.; Naghavi, M.; Nangia, V.; Ngalesoni, F.; Nguyen, C.; Nguyen, T.; Niriayo, Y.; Noroozi, M.; Owolabi, M.; Pereira, D.; Qorbani, M.; Rafay, A.; Rafiei, A.; Rahimi-Movaghar, V.; Rai, R.; Ram, U.; Ranabhat, C.; Ray, S. (2018)
      © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Comparable estimates of health spending are crucial for the assessment of health systems and to ...
    • Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
      Dieleman, J.; Campbell, M.; Chapin, A.; Eldrenkamp, E.; Fan, V.; Haakenstad, A.; Kates, J.; Liu, Y.; Matyasz, T.; Micah, A.; Reynolds, A.; Sadat, N.; Schneider, M.; Sorensen, R.; Evans, T.; Evans, D.; Kurowski, C.; Tandon, A.; Abbas, K.; Abera, S.; Kiadaliri, A.; Ahmed, K.; Ahmed, M.; Alam, K.; Alizadeh-Navaei, R.; Alkerwi, A.; Amini, E.; Ammar, W.; Amrock, S.; Antonio, C.; Atey, T.; Avila-Burgos, L.; Awasthi, A.; Barac, A.; Alberto Bernal, O.; Beyene, A.; Beyene, T.; Birungi, C.; Bizuayehu, H.; Breitborde, N.; Cahuana-Hurtado, L.; Estanislao Castro, R.; Catala-Lopez, F.; Dalal, K.; Dandona, L.; Dandona, R.; de Jager, P.; Dharmaratne, S.; Dubey, M.; Farinha, C.; Faro, A.; Feigl, A.; Fischer, F.; Fitchett, J.; Foigt, N.; Giref, A.; Gupta, R.; Hamidi, S.; Harb, H.; Hay, S.; Hendrie, D.; Horino, M.; Jurisson, M.; Jakovljevic, M.; Javanbakht, M.; John, D.; Jonas, J.; Karimi, S.; Khang, Y.; Khubchandani, J.; Kim, Y.; Kinge, J.; Krohn, K.; Kumar, G.; Abd El Razek, H.; Abd El Razek, M.; Majeed, A.; Malekzadeh, R.; Masiye, F.; Meier, T.; Meretoja, A.; Miller, Ted; Mirrakhimov, E.; Mohammed, S.; Nangia, V.; Olgiati, S.; Osman, A.; Owolabi, M.; Patel, T.; Paternina Caicedo, A.; Pereira, D.; Perelman, J.; Polinder, S.; Rafay, A.; Rahimi-Movaghar, V.; Rai, R.; Ram, U.; Ranabhat, C.; Roba, H.; Salama, J.; Savic, M.; Sepanlou, S.; Shrime, M.; Talongwa, R.; Te Ao, B.; Tediosi, F.; Tesema, A.; Thomson, A.; Tobe-Gai, R.; Topor-Madry, R.; Undurraga, E.; Vasankari, T.; Violante, F.; Werdecker, A.; Wijeratne, T.; Xu, G.; Yonemoto, N.; Younis, M.; Yu, C.; Zaidi, Z.; Zaki, M.; Murray, C. (2017)
      Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described ...
    • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
      Miller, Ted; GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators; Wang, H.; Wolock, T.; Carter, A.; Nguyen, G.; Kyu, H.; Gakidou, E.; Hay, S.; Mills, E.; Trickey, A.; Msemburi, W.; Coates, M.; Mooney, M.; Fraser, M.; Sligar, A.; Salomon, J.; Larson, H.; Friedman, J.; Abajobir, A.; Abate, K.; Abbas, K.; El Razek, M.; Abd-Allah, F.; Abdulle, A.; Abera, S.; Abubakr, I.; Abu-Raddad, L.; Abu-Rmeileh, N.; Abyu, G.; Adebiyi, A.; Adedeji, I.; Adelekan, A.; Adofo, K.; Adou, A.; Ajala, O.; Akinyemiju, T.; Akseer, N.; Al Lami, F.; Al-Aly, Z.; Alam, K.; Alam, N.; Alsfoor, D.; Aldhari, S.; Aldridge, R.; Alegretti, M.; Aleman, A.; Alemu, Z.; Alfonso-Cristancho, R.; Ali, R.; Alkerwi, A.; Alla, F.; Mohammad, R.; Al-Raddadi, S.; Alsharif, U.; Alvarez, E.; Alvis-Guzman, N.; Amare, A.; Amberbir, A.; Amegah, A.; Ammar, W.; Amrock, S.; Antonio, C.; Anwari, P.; Arnlov, J.; Artaman, A.; Asayesh, H.; Asghar, R.; Assadi, R.; Atique, S.; Atkins, L.; Avokpaho, E.; Aswathi, A.; Quintanilla, B.; Bacha, U.; Badawi, A.; Barac, A.; Barnighausen, T.; Basu, A.; Bayou, T.; Bayou, Y.; Bazargan-Hejazi, S.; Beardsley, J.; Bedi, N.; Bennett, D.; Bensenor, I.; Betsu, B.; Beyene, A.; Brainin, M.; Brazinova, A.; Bretborde, N.; Brown, A.; Burch, M.; Butt, Z.; Campuzano, J.; Cardenas, R.; Carrero, J.; Castaneda-Orjuela, C.; Rivas, J.; Catala-Lopez, F.; Chang, H.; Chang, J.; Chavan, L.; Chen, W.; Chiang, P.; Chibalabala, M.; Chisumpa, V.; Choi, J.; Christopher, D.; Ciobanu, L.; Cooper, C.; Dahiru, T.; Damtew, S.; Dandona, L.; Dandona, R.; Neves, J.; Jager, P.; Leo, D.; Degenhardt, L.; Deribe, K.; Deribew, A.; Jarlais, D.; Dharmaratne, S.; Ding, E.; Doshi, P.; Driscoll, T.; Dubey, M.; Elshrek, Y.; Elyazar, I.; Endries, A.; Ermakov, S.; Eshrati, B.; Esteghamati, A.; Faghmous, I.; Farinha, C.; Faro, A.; Farvid, M.; Farzadfar, F.; Fereshtehnejad, S.; Fernandes, J.; Fischer, F.; Fitchett, J.; Foigt, N.; Fullman, N.; Furst, T.; Gankpe, F.; Gebre, T.; Gebremedhin, A.; Gebru, A.; Geleijnse, J.; Gessner, B.; Gething, P.; Ghiwot, T.; Giroud, M.; Gishu, M.; Glaser, E.; Geonka, S.; Goodridge, A.; Gopalani, S.; Goto, A.; Gugnani, H.; Guimaraes, M.; Gupta, R.; Gupta, R.; Gupta, V.; Haagsma, J.; Hafezi-Nejad, N.; Hagan, H.; Hailu, G.; Hamadeh, R.; Hamidi, S.; Hammami, M.; Hankey, G.; Hao, Y.; Harb, H.; Harikrishnan, S.; Haro, J.; Harun, K.; Havmoeller, R.; Hedayati, M.; Heredia-Pi, I.; Hoek, H.; Horino, M.; Horita, N.; Hosgood, H.; Hoy, D.; Hsairi, M.; Hu, G.; Huang, H.; Huang, J.; Iburg, K.; Idrisov, B.; Innos, K.; Iyer, V. (2016)
      Background: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of ...
    Advanced search

    Browse

    Communities & CollectionsIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument TypeThis CollectionIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument Type

    My Account

    Admin

    Statistics

    Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

    Follow Curtin

    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 

    CRICOS Provider Code: 00301JABN: 99 143 842 569TEQSA: PRV12158

    Copyright | Disclaimer | Privacy statement | Accessibility

    Curtin would like to pay respect to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander members of our community by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which the Perth campus is located, the Whadjuk people of the Nyungar Nation; and on our Kalgoorlie campus, the Wongutha people of the North-Eastern Goldfields.