A risk model for the prediction of skin tears in aged care residents: A prospective cohort study
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© 2018 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd The objective of this study was to construct a predictive model to identify aged care residents at risk of future skin tears. Extensive data about individual characteristics, skin characteristics, and skin properties were gathered from 173 participants at baseline and at 6 months. A predictive model, developed using multivariable logistic regression, identified five variables that significantly predicted the risk of skin tear at 6 months. These included: a history of skin tears in the previous 12 months (OR 3.82 [1.64-8.90], P = 0.002), purpura =20 mm in size (OR 3.64 [1.42-9.35], P = 0.007), a history of falls in the previous 3 months (OR 3.37 [1.54-7.41], P = 0.002), clinical manifestations of elastosis (OR 3.19 [1.38-7.38], P = 0.007), and male gender (OR 3.08 [1.22-7.77], P = 0.017). The predictive model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.854 with an 81.7% sensitivity and an 81.4% specificity. This predictive model could inform a simple but promising bedside tool for identifying older individuals at risk of skin tears.
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Identification of risk factors associated with the development of skin tears in hospitalised older persons: A case-control studyLewin, Gill; Newall, Nelly; Alan, Janine; Carville, Kerilyn; Santamaria, Nick; Roberts, Pam (2015)To identify the risk factors associated with the development of skin tears in older persons four hundred and fifty three patients (151 cases and 302 controls) were enrolled in a case-control study in a 500-bed metropolitan ...
Newall, N.; Lewin, Gill; Bulsara, M.; Carville, K.; Leslie, G.; Roberts, Pam (2015)The aim of the present study is to develop a reliable and valid skin tear risk assessment tool. The six characteristics identified in a previous case control study as constituting the best risk model for skin tear development ...
Rayner, Robyn; Carville, Keryln; Leslie, Gavin; Dhaliwal, Satvinder (2018)Background: To describe the profile of aged care residents and to examine those variables that were associated with skin tears. Method: A representative sample of 200 elderly residents were recruited into this cross-sectional ...