Curtin University Homepage
  • Library
  • Help
    • Admin

    espace - Curtin’s institutional repository

    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.
    View Item 
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item
    • espace Home
    • espace
    • Curtin Research Publications
    • View Item

    The effect of oil price on oil consumption and reserves

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Aguilera, Roberto F.
    Aguiler, R.
    Date
    2014
    Type
    Conference Paper
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Aguilera, R.F. and Aguiler, R. 2014. The effect of oil price on oil consumption and reserves. In: SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference 2014, LACPEC 2014, 21st May 2014, Maracaibo; Venezuela.
    Source Conference
    SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference 2014, LACPEC 2014
    DOI
    10.2118/169373-MS
    ISBN
    9781632668882
    Faculty
    Faculty of Business and Law
    School
    School of Economics, Finance and Property
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/76591
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    There has been considerable price volatility in the crude oil market since 1861. At times the yearly variations, as reported by the BP Statistical Review, have been minor but on occasion they have been quite significant. The small and large variations have been matched successfully with a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model. Remarkably, the comparison between actual price variations and those calculated by the VSD leads to a coefficient of determination (R2) larger than 0.98. Given this validation, we integrate the results with a Global Energy Market (GEM) model developed in 2007 that presented an oil consumption forecast to 2030. Thus far, the forecast has been in line with actual oil consumption to 2012. Contrary to statements made by various oil commentators, the integration of results suggests that the possibilities of seeing sudden, large and permanent increases in future oil prices are very low. Given the huge quantities of conventional and unconventional oil available at or below current market prices, society should be able to substitute between alternative sources long before depletion causes oil to become unduly expensive. Further, a case can be made that with the vast global oil resource base and the significant technological advances being implemented by the industry, oil prices could decrease in the future. Copyright 2014, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

    Related items

    Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

    • An analysis of Australian mutual fund performance and market relationships
      Pojanavatee, Sasipa (2013)
      Mutual funds are emerging as an opportunity for investors to automatically diversify their investments in such a way that all their money is pooled and the investment decisions are left to a professional manager. There ...
    • Oil consumption, pollutant emission, oil proce volatility and economic activities in selected Asian Developing Economies
      Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa (2009)
      It is now well established in the literature that oil consumption, oil price shocks, and oil price volatility may impact the economic activities negatively. Studies identifying the relationship between energy and/or oil ...
    • Relationship of iron ore price with other major commodity prices
      Kim, Yoochan ; Ghosh, Apurna ; Topal, Erkan ; Chang, Ping (2022)
      Understanding the interdependency of commodity market pricing system is very important for running a successful mining business. Much of the iron ore price is derived from the prices of other commodities. This study ...
    Advanced search

    Browse

    Communities & CollectionsIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument TypeThis CollectionIssue DateAuthorTitleSubjectDocument Type

    My Account

    Admin

    Statistics

    Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

    Follow Curtin

    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 
    • 

    CRICOS Provider Code: 00301JABN: 99 143 842 569TEQSA: PRV12158

    Copyright | Disclaimer | Privacy statement | Accessibility

    Curtin would like to pay respect to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander members of our community by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which the Perth campus is located, the Whadjuk people of the Nyungar Nation; and on our Kalgoorlie campus, the Wongutha people of the North-Eastern Goldfields.