Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption

Rahman, Muhammad Habibur; Anbarci, N.; Bhattacharya, P.S.; Ulubaşoğlu, M.A.

doi:10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1

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Authors

Rahman, Muhammad Habibur

Anbarci, N.

Bhattacharya, P.S.

Ulubaşoğlu, M.A.

Date

2017

Type

Journal Article

Metadata

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Citation

Rahman, M.H. and Anbarci, N. and Bhattacharya, P.S. and Ulubaşoğlu, M.A. 2017. Can extreme rainfall trigger democratic change? The role of flood-induced corruption. Public Choice. 171: pp. 331-358.

Source Title

Public Choice

DOI

10.1007/s11127-017-0440-1

ISSN

0048-5829

Faculty

Faculty of Business and Law

School

School of Economics, Finance and Property

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80690

Collection

Curtin Research Publications

Abstract

Using a new dataset of extreme rainfall covering 130 countries from 1979 to 2009, this paper investigates whether and how extreme rainfall-driven flooding affects democratic conditions. Our key finding indicates that extreme rainfall-induced flooding exerts two opposing effects on democracy. On one hand, flooding leads to corruption in the chains of emergency relief distribution and other post-disaster assistance, which in turn impels the citizenry to demand more democracy. On the other hand, flooding induces autocratic tendencies in incumbent regimes because efficient post-disaster management with no dissent, chaos or plunder might require government to undertake repressive actions. The net estimated effect is an improvement in democratic conditions.