Optimising Long-Range Agricultural Land Use Under Climate Uncertainty

Abstract

To address the difficult problem of maintaining profitable and resilient agriculture under a changed climate, long-term prediction and planning are needed. One approach capable of helping with this endeavour is mathematical modelling and optimisation. Using a temporal framework, this paper outlines a spatio-temporal agricultural land use sequencer (STALS) model, where feasible climate-aware annual crop land uses are determined for a real-world case study region, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area in Australia. The results of this approach identified desirable transitions in land use and changes in the production system. The analysis revealed two differing possibilities of land use: one with a concentrated crop mix, the other more diverse. However, both suggest higher-value crops, such as horticultural species, will maximise regional economic benefit with comparable minimal water usage under climate change. To maintain regional agricultural economic benefit under reduced water availability and increased temperature, a transformation of land use is needed.