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    Falling rates of hospitalization and mortality from abdominal aortic aneurysms in Australia

    Access Status
    Open access via publisher
    Authors
    Norman, P.
    Spilsbury, Katrina
    Semmens, James
    Date
    2011
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Norman, P. and Spilsbury, K. and Semmens, J. 2011. Falling rates of hospitalization and mortality from abdominal aortic aneurysms in Australia. Journal of Vascular Surgery. 53 (2): pp. 274-277.
    Source Title
    Journal of Vascular Surgery
    DOI
    10.1016/j.jvs.2010.08.087
    ISSN
    07415214
    School
    Centre for Population Health Research
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/29078
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Background: Studies of the population trends for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in the period 1970 to 2000 all indicated that the incidence of AAAs was increasing. It is not known whether this increase has continued. We hypothesized that the incidence of AAAs has begun to fall in Australia. Methods: Age-standardized national trends in mortality from AAAs were estimated for the period 1999 to 2006, and hospital separations (deaths or discharges) for AAAs were estimated for the period 1999 to 2008. Poisson regression models were constructed to estimate the relative change over time. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate from AAAs fell by an average of 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7-7.3) per annum in men and 2.9% (95% CI, 1.0-4.7) in women. After adjusting for age, hospital separations for men decreased by an average of 2.3% (95% CI, 1.4-2.7) per annum for nonruptured AAAs, and 5.9% (95% CI, 5.0-6.6) for ruptured AAAs and for women decreased by an average of 2.2% (95% CI, 1.4-3.0) per annum for nonruptured AAAs, and 5.1% (95% CI, 3.7-6.5) for ruptured AAAs. Ruptured, compared with nonruptured, AAAs were proportionally more common in women compared with men. The age-specific trends in separations from hospital were all downward apart from nonruptured AAAs in individuals aged 80 years and over. Conclusions: The rates of separation from hospital and mortality for AAAs in Australia have fallen since 1999. This suggests a true fall in incidence of AAAs. Although the reasons for this are unknown, it has implications for policy decisions about screening.

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