Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
|dc.identifier.citation||Bindschadler, Robert A. and Nowicki, Sophie and Abe-Ouchi, Ayako and Aschwanden, Andy and Choi, Hyeungu and Fastook, Jim and Granzow, Glen and Greve, Ralf and Gutowski, Gail and Herzfeld, Ute and Jackson, Charles and Johnson, Jesse and Khroulev, Constantine and Levermann, Anders and Lipscomb, William H. and Martin, Maria A. and Morlighem, Mathieu and Parizek, Byron R. and Pollard, David and Price, Stephen F. and Ren, Diandong and Saito, Fuyuki and Sato, Tatsuru and Seddik, Hakime and Seroussi, Helene and Takahashi, Kunio and Walker, Ryan and Wang, Wei. 2013. Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project). Journal of Glaciology. 59 (214): pp. 195-224.|
Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
|dc.publisher||International Glaciological Society|
|dc.subject||Ice flows Sea Rise|
|dc.title||Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)|
|dcterms.source.title||Journal of Glaciology|
|curtin.accessStatus||Open access via publisher|