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    Sojourn time of preclinical colorectal cancer by sex and age: Estimates from the german national screening colonoscopy database

    Access Status
    Open access via publisher
    Authors
    Brenner, H.
    Altenhofen, L.
    Katalinic, A.
    Lansdorp_Vogelaar, Iris
    Hoffmeister, M.
    Date
    2011
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Brenner, H. and Altenhofen, L. and Katalinic, A. and Lansdorp_Vogelaar, I. and Hoffmeister, M. 2011. Sojourn time of preclinical colorectal cancer by sex and age: Estimates from the german national screening colonoscopy database. American Journal of Epidemiology. 174 (10): pp. 1140-1146.
    Source Title
    American Journal of Epidemiology
    DOI
    10.1093/aje/kwr188
    ISSN
    0002-9262
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/50057
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    The sojourn time of preclinical colorectal cancer is a critical parameter in modeling effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. For ethical reasons, it cannot be observed directly, and available estimates are based mostly on relatively small historic data sets that do not include differentiation by age and sex. The authors derived sex-and age-specific estimates (age groups: 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and =80 years) of mean sojourn time, combining data from the German national screening colonoscopy registry (based on 1.88 million records) and data from population-based cancer registries (population base: 37.9 million people) for the years 2003-2006. Estimates of mean sojourn time were similar for both sexes and all age groups and ranged from 4.5 years (95% confidence interval: 4.1, 4.8) to 5.8 years (95% confidence interval: 5.3, 6.3) for the subgroups assessed. Sensitivity analyses indicated that mean sojourn time might be approximately 1.5 years longer if colorectal cancer prevalence in nonparticipants of screening colonoscopy is 20% lower than prevalence in participants or 1 year shorter if it exceeds the prevalence in participants by 20%. This study provides, for the first time, precise estimates of sojourn time by age and sex, and it suggests that sojourn times are remarkably consistent across age groups and in both sexes. © 2011 The Author.

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