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    Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Davies, R.
    Mathias, S.
    Swarbrick, R.
    Tingay, Mark
    Date
    2011
    Type
    Journal Article
    
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    Citation
    Davies, R. and Mathias, S. and Swarbrick, R. and Tingay, M. 2011. Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java. Journal of the Geological Society. 168 (2): pp. 517-523.
    Source Title
    Journal of the Geological Society
    DOI
    10.1144/0016-76492010-129
    ISSN
    0016-7649
    School
    Department of Exploration Geophysics
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25, an initial pressure between 13.9 and 17.6 MPa, and a separate, shallower source of mud (c. 1200-1800 m depth). The resulting 50 percentile for the time it takes for flow to decline to <0.1 Ml day-1 is 26 years. By analogy with natural mud volcanoes it can be expected to continue to flow at lower rates for thousands of years. Assuming subsidence rates of between 1 and 5 cm day-1, land surface subsidence of between c. 95 and c. 475 m can be expected to develop within the 26 year time period.

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