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dc.contributor.authorLe Bihan, Herve
dc.contributor.authorAndrade, P.
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-24T02:20:58Z
dc.date.available2017-08-24T02:20:58Z
dc.date.created2017-08-23T07:21:43Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifier.citationLe Bihan, H. and Andrade, P. 2013. Inattentive professional forecasters. Journal of Monetary Economics. 60 (8): pp. 967-982.
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/55886
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.08.005
dc.description.abstract

Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors. These facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis, and noisy information à la Sims. However, building and estimating such an expectation model, we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

dc.titleInattentive professional forecasters
dc.typeJournal Article
dcterms.source.volume60
dcterms.source.number8
dcterms.source.startPage967
dcterms.source.endPage982
dcterms.source.issn0304-3932
dcterms.source.titleJournal of Monetary Economics
curtin.departmentSchool of Economics and Finance
curtin.accessStatusFulltext not available


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