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    Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis

    Access Status
    Open access via publisher
    Authors
    Reyburn, R.
    Kim, D.
    Emch, M.
    Khatib, A.
    Von Seidlein, L.
    Ali, Mohammed
    Date
    2011
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Reyburn, R. and Kim, D. and Emch, M. and Khatib, A. and Von Seidlein, L. and Ali, M. 2011. Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 84 (6): pp. 862-869.
    Source Title
    The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
    DOI
    10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277
    ISSN
    0002-9637
    School
    School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/65755
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1° C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association ( P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

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