Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis
dc.contributor.author | Reyburn, R. | |
dc.contributor.author | Kim, D. | |
dc.contributor.author | Emch, M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Khatib, A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Von Seidlein, L. | |
dc.contributor.author | Ali, Mohammed | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-02-19T07:59:35Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-02-19T07:59:35Z | |
dc.date.created | 2018-02-19T07:13:27Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Reyburn, R. and Kim, D. and Emch, M. and Khatib, A. and Von Seidlein, L. and Ali, M. 2011. Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 84 (6): pp. 862-869. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/65755 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0277 | |
dc.description.abstract |
Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1° C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association ( P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. | |
dc.publisher | The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene | |
dc.title | Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dcterms.source.volume | 84 | |
dcterms.source.number | 6 | |
dcterms.source.startPage | 862 | |
dcterms.source.endPage | 869 | |
dcterms.source.issn | 0002-9637 | |
dcterms.source.title | The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene | |
curtin.department | School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine | |
curtin.accessStatus | Open access via publisher |
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