Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis
|dc.contributor.author||Von Seidlein, L.|
|dc.identifier.citation||Reyburn, R. and Kim, D. and Emch, M. and Khatib, A. and Von Seidlein, L. and Ali, M. 2011. Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 84 (6): pp. 862-869.|
Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1° C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association ( P < 0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar. Copyright © 2011 by The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
|dc.publisher||The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene|
|dc.title||Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis|
|dcterms.source.title||The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene|
|curtin.department||School of Nursing, Midwifery and Paramedicine|
|curtin.accessStatus||Open access via publisher|
Files in this item
There are no files associated with this item.