On causal extrapolation of sequences with applications to forecasting
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Authors
Dokuchaev, Nikolai
Date
2018Type
Journal Article
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Dokuchaev, N. 2018. On causal extrapolation of sequences with applications to forecasting. Applied Mathematics and Computation. 328: pp. 276-286.
Source Title
Applied Mathematics and Computation
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School
School of Electrical Engineering, Computing and Mathematical Science (EECMS)
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Abstract
The paper suggests a method of extrapolation of notion of one-sided semi-infinite sequences representing traces of two-sided band-limited sequences; this features ensure uniqueness of this extrapolation and possibility to use this for forecasting. This lead to a forecasting method for more general sequences without this feature based on minimization of the mean square error between the observed path and a predicable sequence. These procedure involves calculation of this predictable path; the procedure can be interpreted as causal smoothing. The corresponding smoothed sequences allow unique extrapolations to future times that can be interpreted as optimal forecasts.
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