Short-term electrical load forecasting model based on multi-dimensional meteorological information spatio-temporal fusion and optimized variational mode decomposition

Abstract

This paper proposes a method to enhance the accuracy of power load forecasting by considering the variability in the impact of multi-dimensional meteorological information on power load in diverse regions. The proposed method employs spatio-temporal fusion (SF) of multi-dimensional meteorological information and applies the Copula theory to analyze the non-linear coupling of meteorological information from multiple stations with power load to achieve SF in the spatial dimension. To enhance the accuracy of load forecasting in the time dimension, this paper improves the core parameters of the variational mode decomposition (VMD) using the marine predators algorithm (MPA) and utilizes the weighted permutation entropy (WPE) to construct the MPA-VMD fitness function for the adaptive decomposition of the load sequence. Moreover, this paper constructs input sets for the long short-term memory model and the MPA-LSSVM model by combining each component of the time dimension and each meteorological information of the spatial dimension to obtain the prediction results of each component. The prediction model corresponding to each component is selected according to the evaluation index and reconstructed to obtain the overall prediction results. The analysis results demonstrate that the proposed forecasting method outperforms the traditional forecasting method and effectively enhances the accuracy of power load forecasting.