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    Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects

    68849.pdf (725.2Kb)
    Access Status
    Open access
    Authors
    Love, Peter
    Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.
    Date
    2018
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Citation
    Love, P. and Ahiaga-Dagbui, D. 2018. Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 113: pp. 357-368.
    Source Title
    Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
    DOI
    10.1016/j.tra.2018.04.019
    ISSN
    0965-8564
    School
    School of Civil and Mechanical Engineering (CME)
    Funding and Sponsorship
    http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP160102882
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/68682
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    © 2018 Elsevier Ltd The methodology, analysis, and the unfounded conclusions presented in the paper “Underestimating costs in public works projects: error or lie?” by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (2002), published in the Journal of the American Planning Association are critically questioned. Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl attribute the cause of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects to delusion (optimism bias) and deception (strategic misrepresentation). The bifurcation of the cost underestimation problem into error or lie presents a false dichotomy – an either/or choice that is invalid when juxtaposed with the real-world nature of procuring large infrastructure assets. Put simply, the conclusions presented by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are akin to being fake news. Unfortunately, the persistent reverberation of these convenient narratives and factoids in both academia and media has led to these explanations becoming an accepted norm. In this paper, the claims made by Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl are debunked. A call is made for policy-makers to embrace and utilize evidence-based research so that informed decisions about capital cost estimates and potential risks can be better ascertained at the front-end of major transport infrastructure projects.

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