Persistent pain after wrist or hand fracture: Development and validation of a prognostic model
dc.contributor.author | Harrington, Flavia | |
dc.contributor.author | Cashin, A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Traeger, A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Hübscher, M. | |
dc.contributor.author | Lorimer Moseley, G. | |
dc.contributor.author | Parkitny, L. | |
dc.contributor.author | Mcauley, J. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-05-23T04:07:21Z | |
dc.date.available | 2019-05-23T04:07:21Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Cashin, A.G. and Traeger, A.C. and Hübscher, M. and Lorimer Moseley, G. and Di Pietro, F. and Parkitny, L. and Mcauley, J.H. 2019. Persistent pain after wrist or hand fracture: Development and validation of a prognostic model. Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy. 49 (1): pp. 28-35. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/75517 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.2519/jospt.2019.8342 | |
dc.description.abstract |
Background: Worldwide, the incidence of wrist fracture is increasing. There are currently no externally validated prognostic models to inform early decision making for these patients. Objectives: To develop and validate a prognostic model from a comprehensive range of candidate prognostic factors that can identify patients who are at risk of developing persistent pain following wrist or hand fracture. Methods: We developed and validated a prognostic model using secondary data derived from a prospective cohort study (n = 715), with recruitment sites in 3 metropolitan hospitals in Sydney, Australia. The primary outcome was persistent pain 4 months following the injury. The current study used a backward stepwise regression analysis to develop the model in 2 hospitals (n = 408) and externally validate it in a third hospital (n = 307). To determine the accuracy of the model, we assessed calibration and discrimination in accordance with the PROGnosis RESearch Strategy framework. Results: Complete data were available for 95% of the cohort. Of 14 candidate variables, the final model contained 2 prognostic factors: patient age and pain intensity reported at initial presentation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.56, 0.69) in the development sample and 0.61 (95% confidence interval: 0.51, 0.70) in the validation sample. The model systematically overestimated risk (intercept, −1.13; slope, 0.73). Conclusion: We developed and externally validated a prognostic model to predict persistent pain 4 months after a wrist or hand fracture. Future studies are needed to assess whether the accuracy of this model can be improved by updating and validating it in local settings. Level of Evidence: Prognosis, level 1b. | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.publisher | J O S P T | |
dc.subject | Science & Technology | |
dc.subject | Life Sciences & Biomedicine | |
dc.subject | Orthopedics | |
dc.subject | Rehabilitation | |
dc.subject | Sport Sciences | |
dc.subject | hand fracture | |
dc.subject | persistent pain | |
dc.subject | prognostic model | |
dc.subject | rehabilitation | |
dc.subject | wrist fracture | |
dc.subject | BACK-PAIN | |
dc.subject | DISTAL | |
dc.subject | DISABILITY | |
dc.subject | RECOVERY | |
dc.subject | PATIENT | |
dc.subject | PREDICTORS | |
dc.subject | OUTCOMES | |
dc.subject | SURGERY | |
dc.title | Persistent pain after wrist or hand fracture: Development and validation of a prognostic model | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
dcterms.source.volume | 49 | |
dcterms.source.number | 1 | |
dcterms.source.startPage | 28 | |
dcterms.source.endPage | 35 | |
dcterms.source.issn | 0190-6011 | |
dcterms.source.title | Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy | |
dc.date.updated | 2019-05-23T04:07:21Z | |
curtin.department | School of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences | |
curtin.accessStatus | Fulltext not available | |
curtin.faculty | Faculty of Health Sciences | |
curtin.contributor.orcid | Harrington, Flavia [0000-0002-9642-0805] | |
curtin.contributor.researcherid | Harrington, Flavia [P-5415-2018] | |
dcterms.source.eissn | 1938-1344 | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Cashin, AG [57193824346] | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Traeger, AC [55785495800] | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Hübscher, M [15061289900] | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Lorimer Moseley, G [57202200777] | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Parkitny, L [35994699100] | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Mcauley, JH [35237756600] | |
curtin.contributor.scopusauthorid | Harrington, Flavia [6603432291] |
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