Effect of Oil Production on the Price of Oil

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of oil production on the price of oil considering particularly the case of unconventional (tight and shale) reservoirs.

Five years ago, at LACPEC 2014 in Maracaibo, Venezuela, we presented an original paper and a methodology to investigate the price of oil. We stated in that paper that "with the vast global oil resource base and significant technological advances being implemented by the industry, oil prices could decrease in the future" (Aguilera and Aguilera, 2014). Given the good comparison between our 2014 LACPEC study and the actual oil pricing during the last 5 years, we use the same methodology for investigating possible ranges of oil prices in the future.

Our results stem from a successful match, using a Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) model, of the small and large variations of oil prices since 1861. Results are good, with a coefficient of determination (R2) larger than 0.98. We also match successfully oil consumption rates from 1861 to 2019 using a Global Energy Market (GEM) Model. The combination of the VSD and GEM, and our investigation on availability of oil resources, lead to the conclusion that our 2014 statement at LACPEC in Maracaibo remains current: "with the vast global oil resource base and the significant technological advances being implemented by the industry, oil prices could decrease in the future". Our methodology further indicates that, barring an unforeseen global disruptive event, oil prices will remain depressed for the foreseeable future. This supports the findings of Aguilera and Radetzki (2015) who in their book, The Price of Oil, forecast oil prices between $40 and $60 by 2035. This contrasts with the work of authoritative energy forecasting agencies who project rising prices in the coming decades. Also, as opposed to some oil companies, particularly some of the European organizations, that see the peak oil demand coming soon enough, e.g. the mid-2020s, our research indicates that it is unlikely that oil demand will peak in the coming decades.

The uniqueness of our forecasting methods for the oil price and global oil consumption is that our methods have remained unchanged since their creation (Aguilera and Aguilera, 2007) and yet they continue to generate reasonable results. This contrasts with methods of other organizations and commentators that change their forecasts repeatedly.