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    The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Rahman, Muhammad Habibur
    Anbarci, Nejat
    Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar
    Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali
    Date
    2017
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Habibur Rahman, M. and Anbarci, N. and Bhattacharya, P.S. and Ulubaşoğlu, M.A. 2017. The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes. Southern Economic Journal. 83 (3): pp. 796-823.
    Source Title
    Southern Economic Journal
    DOI
    10.1002/soej.12180
    Additional URLs
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/soej.12180
    ISSN
    0038-4038
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80691
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground-motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short-term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full-fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions.

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