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dc.contributor.authorRahman, Muhammad Habibur
dc.contributor.authorAnbarci, Nejat
dc.contributor.authorBhattacharya, Prasad Sankar
dc.contributor.authorUlubaşoğlu, Mehmet Ali
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-20T07:31:50Z
dc.date.available2020-08-20T07:31:50Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.citationHabibur Rahman, M. and Anbarci, N. and Bhattacharya, P.S. and Ulubaşoğlu, M.A. 2017. The Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes. Southern Economic Journal. 83 (3): pp. 796-823.
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/80691
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/soej.12180
dc.description.abstract

Do earthquakes trigger political transitions? Using a rich panel dataset of 160 countries observed over 1950–2007, we find that earthquake shocks, measured in terms of the effect of ground-motion amplitude on death toll, have two contradicting effects on political change. On the one hand, earthquakes drive transitions into democracy due to an affective shock, which we interpret to be the reaction of citizens by which they hold the incumbent government responsible for earthquake damages. On the other hand, earthquakes indirectly hasten transitions into a less democratic regime because they increase the income level contemporaneously, possibly due to short-term emergency response and recovery expenditures, and thus, raising the opportunity cost of contesting the incumbent government. Overall, we show that, while not leading to a full-fledged regime transition, earthquake shocks open a new democratic window of opportunity, but this window is narrowed by improved economic conditions.

dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWILEY-BLACKWELL
dc.relation.urihttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/soej.12180
dc.subjectSocial Sciences
dc.subjectEconomics
dc.subjectBusiness & Economics
dc.subjectNATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectGROWTH
dc.subjectCORRUPTION
dc.subjectSPREAD
dc.subjectVOTERS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.titleThe Shocking Origins of Political Transitions: Evidence from Earthquakes
dc.typeJournal Article
dcterms.source.volume83
dcterms.source.number3
dcterms.source.startPage796
dcterms.source.endPage823
dcterms.source.issn0038-4038
dcterms.source.titleSouthern Economic Journal
dc.date.updated2020-08-20T07:31:50Z
curtin.accessStatusFulltext not available
curtin.contributor.orcidRahman, Muhammad Habibur [0000-0002-8493-3873]
curtin.contributor.researcheridRahman, Muhammad Habibur [N-5154-2016]
curtin.identifier.article-number3
dcterms.source.eissn2325-8012


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