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dc.contributor.authorAdam, Arne A.S.
dc.contributor.authorGarcia, Rodrigo A.
dc.contributor.authorGalaiduk, R.
dc.contributor.authorTomlinson, Sean
dc.contributor.authorRadford, B.
dc.contributor.authorThomas, L.
dc.contributor.authorRichards, Zoe
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-01T05:39:30Z
dc.date.available2023-03-01T05:39:30Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.citationAdam, A.A.S. and Garcia, R.A. and Galaiduk, R. and Tomlinson, S. and Radford, B. and Thomas, L. and Richards, Z.T. 2021. Diminishing potential for tropical reefs to function as coral diversity strongholds under climate change conditions. Diversity and Distributions. 27 (11): pp. 2245-2261.
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/90693
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/ddi.13400
dc.description.abstract

Aim: Forecasting the influence of climate change on coral biodiversity and reef functioning is important for informing policy decisions. Dominance shifts, tropicalization and local extinctions are common responses of climate change, but uncertainty surrounds the reliability of predicted coral community transformations. Here, we use species distribution models (SDMs) to assess changes in suitable coral habitat and associated patterns in biodiversity across Western Australia (WA) under present-day and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Location: Coral reef systems and communities in WA. Methods: We developed SDMs with model prediction uncertainty analyses, using specimen-based occurrence records of 188 hermatypic scleractinian coral species and seven variables to estimate present-day and future changes to coral species distribution and biodiversity patterns in WA under climate change conditions. Results: We found that suitable habitat is predicted to increase across all regions in WA under (Formula presented.), (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.) scenarios with all tropical and subtropical regions remaining coral biodiversity strongholds. Under the extreme (Formula presented.) scenario, however, a clear tropicalization trend could be observed with coral species expanding their range to mid-high latitude regions, while a substantial drop in coral species richness was predicted at low latitude tropical coral reefs, such as the inshore Kimberley and offshore NW reefs. Despite the predicted expansion south, we identified a net decline in coral biodiversity across the WA coastline. Main conclusions: Results from the models predicted higher net coral biodiversity loss at low latitude tropical regions compared with net gains at mid-high latitude regions under (Formula presented.). These results are likely to be representative of latitudinal trends across the Southern Hemisphere and highlight that increases in habitat suitability at higher latitudes may not lead to equivalent biodiversity benefits. Urgent action is needed to limit climate change to prevent spatial erosion of tropical coral communities, extinction events and loss of tropical ecosystem services.

dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWILEY
dc.relation.sponsoredbyhttp://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP160101508
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectScience & Technology
dc.subjectLife Sciences & Biomedicine
dc.subjectBiodiversity Conservation
dc.subjectEcology
dc.subjectBiodiversity & Conservation
dc.subjectEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology
dc.subjectbiodiversity
dc.subjectcoral reef
dc.subjectglobal change ecology
dc.subjectrefugia
dc.subjectScleractinia
dc.subjecttransformation
dc.subjecttropicalization
dc.subjectWestern Australia
dc.subjectSPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
dc.subjectCHANGE REFUGIA
dc.subjectRANGE SHIFTS
dc.subjectMARINE
dc.subjectBIODIVERSITY
dc.subjectPREDICTION
dc.subjectEXPANSION
dc.subjectIMPACTS
dc.subjectCOASTAL
dc.subjectFUTURE
dc.titleDiminishing potential for tropical reefs to function as coral diversity strongholds under climate change conditions
dc.typeJournal Article
dcterms.source.volume27
dcterms.source.number11
dcterms.source.startPage2245
dcterms.source.endPage2261
dcterms.source.issn1366-9516
dcterms.source.titleDiversity and Distributions
dc.date.updated2023-03-01T05:39:29Z
curtin.departmentSchool of Molecular and Life Sciences (MLS)
curtin.accessStatusOpen access
curtin.facultyFaculty of Science and Engineering
curtin.contributor.orcidTomlinson, Sean [0000-0003-0864-5391]
curtin.contributor.orcidRichards, Zoe [0000-0002-8947-8996]
curtin.contributor.orcidAdam, Arne A.S. [0000-0002-2960-7880]
curtin.contributor.orcidGarcia, Rodrigo A. [0000-0002-6495-3535]
dcterms.source.eissn1472-4642
curtin.contributor.scopusauthoridTomlinson, Sean [22036612300]
curtin.contributor.scopusauthoridRichards, Zoe [23988153400]


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