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    A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects

    Access Status
    Fulltext not available
    Authors
    Simpeh, E.
    Ndihokubwayo, R.
    Love, Peter
    Thwala, W.
    Date
    2015
    Type
    Journal Article
    
    Metadata
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    Citation
    Simpeh, E. and Ndihokubwayo, R. and Love, P. and Thwala, W. 2015. A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects. International Journal of Construction Management. 15 (2): pp. 109-116.
    Source Title
    International Journal of Construction Management
    DOI
    10.1080/15623599.2015.1033814
    School
    Department of Civil Engineering
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21107
    Collection
    • Curtin Research Publications
    Abstract

    © 2015 Taylor & Francis. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the rework data. Non-parametric tests were used to determine the goodness-of-fit of the selected probability distributions. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests revealed that generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit for the dataset. Single probability points for rework from 1% to 10% were calculated. It was established that rework can make a significant contribution to a project's cost overrun. The mean total rework cost as a percentage of the original contract value was found to be 5.12%. For a mean total rework cost of 5.12% the likelihood that a project exceeds is 76%. The anticipation that rework will occur, using the probabilities that are derived, can enable a quantitative risk assessment to be undertaken, which will ultimately lead to identifying alternative solutions so as to avoid rework prior to the commencement of construction work.

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