A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects
|dc.identifier.citation||Simpeh, E. and Ndihokubwayo, R. and Love, P. and Thwala, W. 2015. A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects. International Journal of Construction Management. 15 (2): pp. 109-116.|
© 2015 Taylor & Francis. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the rework data. Non-parametric tests were used to determine the goodness-of-fit of the selected probability distributions. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests revealed that generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit for the dataset. Single probability points for rework from 1% to 10% were calculated. It was established that rework can make a significant contribution to a project's cost overrun. The mean total rework cost as a percentage of the original contract value was found to be 5.12%. For a mean total rework cost of 5.12% the likelihood that a project exceeds is 76%. The anticipation that rework will occur, using the probabilities that are derived, can enable a quantitative risk assessment to be undertaken, which will ultimately lead to identifying alternative solutions so as to avoid rework prior to the commencement of construction work.
|dc.publisher||Taylor and Francis Ltd.|
|dc.title||A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects|
|dcterms.source.title||International Journal of Construction Management|
|curtin.department||Department of Civil Engineering|
|curtin.accessStatus||Fulltext not available|
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