An Analysis of the Australian Mortality

Abstract

This thesis evaluates and compares the goodness-of-fit of six selected stochastic mortality models, based on Australian mortality data. These models are applied to both sexes, across three different age-group scenarios, and four lookback windows and five look forward windows. Four different criteria were applied in the model selection and evaluation and results indicate that the Lee-Carter model is more efficient. The forecast is for a period of 50-years (from 2012 to 2061) and results reveal that mortality rates are improving with age stratification.